FORECASTING OF SHIP’S CONSTRUCTION COST BY USING THE METHOD OF THE FUZZY SETS THEORY

Abstract

In order to take a rational decision about construction of a ship it is necessary to have an adequate predictive estimate of a construction cost. Traditional forecasting methods do not provide the required level of reliability of a shipyard’s cost estimates. The method of cost forecasting based on fuzzy logic system is proposed. This method has several advantages, including: use of fuzzy initial information for forecasting; increase of the result’s validity due to the potential of use all relevant information for forecasting. In view of the aforesaid it increases the validity of management decisions and has a positive impact on the overall economic sustainability of an enterprise.

Keywords

• fuzzy logic
• cost forecasting
• construction cost of a ship
• shipbuilding