Demographic shifts and health dynamics: Exploring the impact of aging rates on health outcomes in Brazilian capitals

Abstract

Objectives: We aimed to examine the association between population aging and the prevalence of non-communicable diseases and risk factors in the Brazilian population. Study design: An ecological study using secondary data from 2010 to 2023 of the Surveillance System of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (VIGITEL). Methods: We estimated the aging rate in 2010 and 2022 as the ratio of people aged 65 or older to those younger than 15 using the 2010 and 2022 Brazilian censuses. We calculated the absolute differences in the prevalence of non-communicable diseases (hypertension, diabetes) and their risk factors (smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, obesity) and negative health perceptions in 2010 and 2023 for the 26 Brazilian states and the Federal District. Linear regression assessed the relationship between aging rate and health outcomes. We stratified the analyses to explore the differences by sex. Results: Brazil's aging rate was higher among women than men (average of 0.20 and 0.31, respectively). The increased number of older adults was associated with a higher prevalence of excess weight and diabetes in men. In women, the aging rate was associated with a higher prevalence of smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Conclusions: Our findings show a sex-specific association between population aging and the prevalence of health conditions in the Brazilian population. By discerning the sex-specific nuances and untangling the multifactorial influences, this research aspires to contribute valuable insights to the burgeoning field of public health in the face of evolving demographic landscapes.

Keywords

• Aging
• Elderly
• Health outcomes
• Non-communicable diseases
• Risk factors
• Brazil