Радіоелектронні і комп'ютерні системи (Aug 2024)
Models and information technology of aging management of man-made systems in the conditions of modern risks
Abstract
The urgent task of researching logistical measures and actions aimed at increasing the life of man-made systems is being formed and solved. The research being conducted is related to the management of complex, high-cost man-made systems (continuation of their resource) with long-term life (high-tech production, critical infrastructure, nuclear power, etc.).Therefore, the topic of the proposed publication, which examines the sequence of logistical actions in planning projects for managing the aging of man-made systems, is relevant. The purpose of this research is to create a complex of mathematical and agent models that can be used to analyze the problem of age degradation and plan actions to manage the aging of man-made systems. The problems that arose due to the aging of the man-made system are analyzed, such as: outdated technological equipment, the effects of climate change risks, regular disruption of energy supply, acts of terrorism, and military threats. Much attention is paid to critical man-made systems with high risks of impact on the environment and people, which are associated with their aging. A systematic analysis of the sequence of logistic actions related to the management of the aging of the man-made system was carried out. A number of possible strategies for aging management are emerging, such as: modernization and replacement of obsolete equipment; reducing the risks of impact on the environment of critical man-made systems, which requires the extension of their resources. The limited capabilities of enterprises are considered when determining the costs of preventive measures to extend the life of a man-made system. An analysis of influencing factors (external and internal) on the aging process of man-made systems is also conducted. Significant influencing factors are separated using virtual experiments and expert assessments. To identify outdated system components, a method is proposed based on assessing their condition with the help of experts and lexicographic ordering of a set of component variants. A cost optimization model is being created for the implementation of measures and actions to manage the of the man-made system. An agent model is formed on the Any Logic platform to analyze the sequence of logistic actions related to the management of man-made system. An example of extending the life of high-tech aircraft production is provided. The scientific novelty of the study is related to the solution of the urgent problem of the formation of strategies, models, and project planning methods for the management of the aging of man-made systems, which contributes to the extension of their existence and the reduction of the risks of impact on the environment and people. The results of this study should be used by the management of enterprises in planning projects related to the management of the aging of man-made systems.
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