Static Security Evaluation of Power Systems Considering Uncertainties Using a Point Estimation Method

Abstract

Continuous increase in fuel prices and its variations together with the emerged environmental pollutions cause to tendency to the renewable energy sources. However, the variable and uncertain natures of these generations as well as the market pressure due to the electricity market background threat the network security. Therefore, the recognition of the security index states in different operation conditions and considering the preventive and corrective actions are vital. Employment of the expected value of the uncertain variables for the power system security analysis would result in unrealistic outcomes and threatening of the power system security. Conventional approaches relying on the analysis of the large sum of scenarios such as Monte Carlo method are not efficient in the realistic large scale power systems due to the high computational burden and required time. This paper, in order to analysis the power system security, uses a point estimation method which consider the uncertainty while still has the satisfactory computational burden and time. The proposed method is examined on several power system test cases and its ability to effective uncertainty modeling in acceptable time is shown.

Keywords

• static security evaluation
• renewable energy sources
• distribution function of stochastic variable
• monte carlo method
• point estimation method