The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Globally

Nabin Sapkota; Waldemar Karwowski; Mohammad Reza Davahli; Awad Al-Juaid; Redha Taiar; Atsuo Murata; Grzegorz Wrobel; Tadeusz Marek

doi:10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3085240

IEEE Access (Jan 2021)

The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Globally

Nabin Sapkota,
Waldemar Karwowski,
Mohammad Reza Davahli,
Awad Al-Juaid,
Redha Taiar,
Atsuo Murata,
Grzegorz Wrobel,
Tadeusz Marek

Affiliations

Nabin Sapkota: ORCiD; Department of Engineering Technology, Northwestern State University of Louisiana, Natchitoches, LA, USA
Waldemar Karwowski: ORCiD; Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA
Mohammad Reza Davahli: ORCiD; Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA
Awad Al-Juaid: ORCiD; Industrial Engineering Department, Taif University, Taif, Saudi Arabia
Redha Taiar: ORCiD; MATériaux et Ingénierie Mécanique (MATIM), Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, Reims, France
Atsuo Murata: ORCiD; Department of Intelligent Mechanical Systems, Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University, Okayama, Japan
Grzegorz Wrobel: ORCiD; Department of Logistics and Process Engineering, University of Information Technology and Management in Rzeszów, Rzeszów, Poland
Tadeusz Marek: ORCiD; Department of Cognitive Neuroscience and Neuroergonomics, Institute of Applied Psychology, Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3085240
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 9
pp. 80692 – 80702

Abstract

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In December 2019, China announced the breakout of a new virus identified as coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), which soon grew exponentially and resulted in a global pandemic. Despite strict actions to mitigate the spread of the virus in various countries, COVID-19 resulted in a significant loss of human life in 2020 and early 2021. To better understand the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19, evidence of its chaotic behavior in the US and globally was evaluated. A 0–1 test was used to analyze the time-series data of confirmed daily COVID-19 cases from 1/22/2020 to 12/13/2020. The results show that the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic was chaotic in 55% of the investigated countries. Although the time-series data for the entire US was not chaotic, 39% of individual states displayed chaotic infection spread behavior based on the reported daily cases. Overall, there is evidence of chaotic behavior of the spread of COVID-19 infection worldwide, which adds to the difficulty in controlling and preventing the current pandemic.

Published in IEEE Access

ISSN: 2169-3536 (Online)
Publisher: IEEE
Country of publisher: United States
LCC subjects: Technology: Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering
Website: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/RecentIssue.jsp?punumber=6287639

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