CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea‐Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023

Abstract

Abstract In 2023, Antarctic sea‐ice extent (SIE) reached record lows, with winter SIE falling to 2.5Mkm2 below the satellite era average. With this multi‐model study, we investigate the occurrence of anomalies of this magnitude in latest‐generation global climate models. When these anomalies occur, SIE takes decades to recover: this indicates that SIE may transition to a new, lower, state over the next few decades. Under internal variability alone, models are extremely unlikely to simulate these anomalies, with return period >1000 years for most models. The only models with return period <1000 years for these anomalies have likely unrealistically large interannual variability. Based on extreme value theory, the return period is reduced from 2650 years under internal variability to 580 years under a strong climate change forcing scenario.

Keywords

• Antarctica
• sea ice
• variability
• CMIP6
• climate models
• Southern Ocean