Uncertainties in data processing, forecasting and decision making

Abstract

Forecasting, dynamic planning, and current statistical data processing are defined as the process of estimating an enterprise’s current state on the market compared to other competing enterprises and determining further goals as well as sequences of actions and resources necessary for reaching the goals stated. In order to perform high-quality forecasting, it is proposed to identify and consider possible uncertainties associated with data and expert estimates. This is one of the system analysis principles to be hired for achieving high-quality final results. A review of some uncertainties is given, and an illustrative example showing improvement of the final result after considering possible stochastic uncertainty is provided.

Keywords

• mathematical model
• statistical data uncertainties
• system analysis principles
• forecasting
• decision support system