On the Northward Shift of Agro-Climatic Zones in Europe under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

We investigate future changes of agro-climatic zones over Europe under two different IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) based on an ensemble of 11 bias-corrected regional climate model simulations covering the period 1981–2100. Eight distinct agro-climatic zones were identified by applying the k-means clustering method for the reference period 1981–2010 on two temperature-related parameters: the growing season length and the active temperature sum. Our results point towards a strong northward shift of the agro-climatic zones, especially under RCP8.5, towards the end of the century. A significant shift of the agro-climatic zones is also projected for RCP4.5 in the near-future and the end-of-the-century periods for large areas in Europe.

Keywords

• climate change
• regional climate model simulations
• bias-corrected
• EURO-CORDEX
• future scenarios
• agro-climatic zones