Future Projection of Mortality From Exposure to PM2.5 and O3 Under the Carbon Neutral Pathway: Roles of Changing Emissions and Population Aging

Abstract

Abstract A global chemical transport model GEOS‐Chem was applied to examine the concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 in China, related health burdens and the relative importance of changes in air pollutants and population aging over 2015–2060 under carbon neutral pathway (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway limiting end‐of‐century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, SSP1‐1.9). Results showed synergistic reductions of 100.0%, 72.0%, and 24.4% in net CO2 emission, concentration of annual mean PM2.5, and the 90th maximum daily average 8‐hr (MDA8) O3 over China, respectively, during 2015–2060. Pollutants‐related deaths owing to changes in pollutants and population were simulated to increase by 38.1% over 2015–2060 because of population aging. Over 2015–2060, sensitivity studies showed that the decline in pollutants alone would mitigate deaths by 5,172.7 thousand, while the population aging alone would increase deaths by 2,633.3 thousand. Carbon neutrality will avoid 3,520.0 thousand deaths in 2060 relative to a higher‐carbon pathway (SSP5‐8.5).