Detecting early safety signals of infliximab using machine learning algorithms in the Korea adverse event reporting system

Abstract

Abstract There has been a growing attention on using machine learning (ML) in pharmacovigilance. This study aimed to investigate the utility of supervised ML algorithms on timely detection of safety signals in the Korea Adverse Event Reporting System (KAERS), using infliximab as a case drug, between 2009 and 2018. Input data set for ML training was constructed based on the drug label information and spontaneous reports in the KAERS. Gold standard dataset containing known AEs was randomly divided into the training and test sets. Two supervised ML algorithms (gradient boosting machine [GBM], random forest [RF]) were fitted with hyperparameters tuned on the training set by using a fivefold validation. Then, we stratified the KAERS data by calendar year to create 10 cumulative yearly datasets, in which ML algorithms were applied to detect five pre-specified AEs of infliximab identified during post-marketing surveillance. Four AEs were detected by both GBM and RF in the first year they appeared in the KAERS and earlier than they were updated in the drug label of infliximab. We further applied our models to data retrieved from the US Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System repository and found that they outperformed existing disproportionality methods. Both GBM and RF demonstrated reliable performance in detecting early safety signals and showed promise for applying such approaches to pharmacovigilance.