Correlation between Economic Growth, Oil Prices and the Level of Monetization of Economy in Oil and Gas Exporting Countries: Challenges for Russia

Abstract

The problem of low monetization of the Russian economy occasionally provoked serious discussions on the necessity of a substantial increase for stimulating economic growth. However, this step will not change the crisis situation in resistance to structural factors, and mistakes in monetary regulation. The study of the level of monetization in the periods of stagnation and decline in oil prices for countries that export raw materials, testifies to the impossibility of stimulating economic growth only at the expense of additional money supply. Policy of inflation targeting in developing resource economies may lead to the execution of its objectives in the face of rising trend of commodity prices, monetary policy limits credit expansion. Currently falling oil prices and a liberal foreign exchange regime stimulates high inflation and curtailing loan activity. Therefore, during periods of negative commodity market conditions required a switch of monetary-credit regulation in ensuring financial stability and counteract the processes of deleverage in the real sector of the economy. Instead of the consumer price index dynamics of the credit activity should be the main indicator of regulation. The Bank of Russia should begin a cycle of lowering interest rates while reducing credit activity, even if the CPI remains high. A return to neutral monetary policy will become possible after stopping the falling of oil trend and the increase in loan activity

Keywords

• monetization
• banking system
• inflation targeting
• financial stability
• loans