Storm frequency, magnitude, and cumulative storm beach impact along the US east coast

Abstract

This study extracted historical water level data from 12 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration tide gauge stations, spanning the period from the early 20th century to 2022 from central Maine to southern Florida, in order to determine if temporal and spatial trends existed in the frequency and magnitude of storms along the US Atlantic Ocean coast. We used the Storm Erosion Potential Index (SEPI) to identify and quantify storms. We then use the timing and magnitude of those storms to determine the cumulative effect of storm clustering and large-magnitude storms on sandy beaches using the cumulative storm impact index (CSII) empirical model. The results from this study showed (1) no appreciable increase in storm frequency at any of the stations (except for sheltered stations susceptible to storm tide augmentation), (2) statistically significant but modest increases in storm magnitudes over time for 8 of the 12 tidal stations, (3) regional differences in storm magnitudes (SEPI) and cumulative storm impacts (CSII) characteristic of more frequent extratropical storms (temporal clustering) in the north and less frequent tropical storms in the south, and (4) a 4- to 10-year recovery period for regional beach recovery.