Bìznes Inform (Jan 2014)
Modelling Dynamics of Main Indicators of Economic Activity of Households of Ukraine
Abstract
The goal of the article is the study of the structure of the system of economic activity of households in Ukraine and dynamics of interconnections between the main indicators of its functioning. In order to study dynamics of main indicators of the system of economic activity of households, the article uses tools of econometric vector-autoregression modelling (VAR models). Based on the existing statistical data and a developed VAR model, the article studies individual and aggregate influence of lag values of indicators upon their current values, system reaction on main indicators impulses, analyses dynamics of change of explanation of dispersion of some indicators with others, and conducts two types of forecasts that reflect a general tendency of development of economic activity of households in Ukraine. High accuracy of forecasts obtained with the help of the proposed econometric model testifies to a possibility of its practical application for assessment of the state of main indicators of economic activity of households of Ukraine. The article applies for the first time the tools of VAR modelling for the study of economic activity of households in Ukraine, which expands possibilities of use of mathematical and statistical methods and models in this field of economy.
