Optimizing Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Approach to the Battle of Water Demand Forecasting

Abstract

The current paper presents a forecasting methodology for short-term water demand forecasting in the context of the Battle of Water Demand Forecasting. The methodology considers five distinct forecasting techniques, which are compared in terms of their forecasting ability for a preceding period, typically spanning a day or a week. The best-performing model is identified through error assessment between model predictions and actual measurements. This model is finally used to estimate the values for the forecasting horizon. This methodology directly considers the importance of tailoring the model to the specific case study and objectives. However, it is computationally intensive and relies on the fact that there will be not much variance between the preceding period and forecasting horizon results.

Keywords

• model selection
• short-term forecasting
• water demand