Understanding herders’ risk perceptions and preferences for climate change adaptations: an empirical study of pre and post disaster

Abstract

Herders risk perception and preference critically shape their’ decision-making and management strategies. This study aims to determine how these factors affect herders’ adaptative behaviours pre- and post-disaster events and whether decision-making remains consistent across these stages. Using an ordered Probit model, we analysed survey data collected in 2020 from 828 herder households across six counties in Inner Mongolia and Gansu Province, China. The results showed that risk-averse individuals or those with a high-risk perception are more inclined toward preventative behaviours to pre-disaster. Group heterogeneity analysis revealed significant demographic interaction effects among female, middle-aged, and low-income herders, risk perception notably increased the adoption of adpatation behaviours, whereas among male, middle-aged, and high-income herders, higher risk preference negatively affected adaptive actions. The findings highlight the importance of understanding and evaluating the risks involved so herders in pastoral regions can better adapt to climate change.These insights also underscore the need for demographic-targeted extension services to enhance climate-adaptation among pastoral communities.

Keywords

• Risk perception
• pre-disaster prevention behaviour
• post-disaster adjustment behaviour
• herder
• Hisk preference