Combined Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Kriya River

Abstract

【Objective】 Kriya River is one of most important rivers in Xinjinag, and the purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of climate change and human activity on its runoff. 【Method】 The study was based on trend analysis, correlation analysis and abrupt change analysis; the contribution of climate change and human activities to the change in the runoff was calculated using the double cumulative curve method and the comparison of slope rate of change of cumulative volume, respectively. 【Result】 The mean annual temperature and runoff showed significant increase from 1958 to 2015, annual precipitation did not show significant variation, while the potential evapotranspiration had decreased significantly. The sudden change in the runoff occurred in 1999, as estimated by the Mann-Kendall method, cumulative distance level method and the ordered clustering method. Using the data from 1958 to 1999 as reference, the contribution of climate change and human activities to the runoff calculated using the double cumulative curve method for 2000—2015 was 59.16% and 40.84%, respectively, and those calculated by the cumulative slope rate were 79.03% and 20.97%, respectively. 【Conclusion】 Climate change is the primary factor influencing the change in the runoff of the Kriya River, followed by human activities.

Keywords

• double cumulative curve method
• kriya river basin
• climate change
• human activities
• comparison of the slope rate of change of cumulative volume