Enhancing infectious diseases early warning: A deep learning approach for influenza surveillance in China

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to develop a universally applicable, feedback-informed Self-Excitation Attention Residual Network (SEAR) model. This model dynamically adapts to evolving disease trends and surveillance system changes, accommodating various scenarios. Thereby enhancing the effectiveness of early warning systems. Methods: Surveillance data on influenza-like illness (ILI) was collected from various regions including Northern China, Southern China, Beijing, and Yunnan. The reproduction number (Rt) was estimated to determine the threshold for issuing warnings. The Self-Excitation Attention Residual Network (SEAR) was devised employing deep learning algorithms and was trained, validated, and tested. The SEAR model's efficacy was assessed based on five metrics: accuracy rate, recall rate, F1 score, confusion matrix, and the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: With an advance warning set at three days, the SEAR model outperformed five primary models − logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Long Short-Term Memory model − in all five evaluation metrics. Notably, the model's warning performance declined with an increase in the early warning value and the number of warning days, albeit maintaining a ROC value over 0.7 in all scenarios. Conclusion: The SEAR model demonstrated robust early warning performance for influenza in diverse Chinese regions with high accuracy and specificity. This novel model, augmenting traditional systems, supports widespread application for respiratory disease outbreak monitoring. Future evaluations could incorporate alternative indicators, with the model continuously updating through data feedback, thus enhancing its universal applicability. Ongoing optimization, using iterative feedback and expert judgment, heralds a transformative approach to surveillance-based early warning strategies.

Keywords

• Influenza transmissibility
• Deep learning
• Early warning
• Infectious disease surveillance