Habitat Suitability Modeling of Wild Goat (Capra Aegagrus) and Caspian Snowcock (Tetraogallus Caspius) in the Central Northern Alborz Protected Area Based on the Multi-Criteria Evaluation Procedure (MCE)

Abstract

Introduction: In recent years, natural habitats, especially protected areas, have mostly become fragmented and islanded and have been placed among human uses. Knowing the desirable wildlife habitats and understanding their characteristics is very important. By using the methods of habitat modeling widely and without the need to collect the details of the physiological and behavioral characteristics of the species, it is possible to get an estimate of the habitat's desirability for wildlife. Wild goat (Capra aegagrus) and Caspian snowcock (Tetraogallus caspius) are two indicator species of high mountain areas, which are placed in the NT & LC category according to the 2020 and 2016 IUCN Red List, respectively.Materials and Methods: In this research, the habitat desirability of these two species was modeled in the central northern Alborz protected area by using the multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) method. First, the effective criteria were determined by reviewing the sources and studying the overview of the species, and then using the AHP method, six different weight scenarios were created for each species. Six scenarios were modeled using the weighted linear combination method, and the validation of the model was performed using the ROC index from the comparison of the simulated image and the reference image. The information about the presence of the warbler and the partridge was obtained through field visits and direct observations of the species, the effects left behind such as dung and footprints in the central northern Alborz protected area and was used as a reference image to evaluate the accuracy. Finally, the dependence of the final utility on the criteria was determined using the Pearson's linear correlation coefficient (r). Results: Among the six different weight scenarios for Wild goat and Caspian snowcock, according to the validation results, the second scenario with ROC rate equal to 0.95% for both species was selected as the best weight scenario. The image of the final desirability showed the greatest desirability for both species in the central and southeastern parts of the study area, and based on the results of the linear Pearson correlation coefficient (r), the desirability of the habitat has the greatest dependence on the factors of height, distance from rocky areas and environmental checkpoints. And it is less than the influence of other parameters. Also, Wild goat and Caspian snowcock species have a significant overlap in habitat areas, so that both of them prefer high rocky areas as habitats. Another important factor is the existence of environmental checkpoints, which greatly increases the desirability of the species in this area. Discussion: The present study shows that the Caspian snowcock and Wild goat species of partridge have more suitable habitat conditions in the high mountainous areas, especially in the southeastern and central areas of the central northern Alborz protected area. These areas include rocky heights that are particularly attractive for these species. The distance from the rocky areas and the distance from the environmental checkpoints are also very important and have a significant effect on the habitat desirability of these species. For these species, roads and the construction of human settlements interfere with their habitat, but illegal hunting is also a serious threat to these species. Therefore, to protect these species, measures such as the establishment of environmental checkpoints, restrictions on construction in their habitat areas, promotion of public awareness about the protection of these species and the implementation of strict laws against illegal hunting can be effective.

Keywords

• multi criteria evaluation
• weighted linear combination
• wild goat
• caspia snowcock
• central alborz protected area