Stochastic financial evaluation: The case of an intermodal terminal

Abstract

Intermodal terminals (IMTs) have significant importance in logistics networks whose development enables the implementation of intermodal transportation technologies and participation in international goods flows. Developing IMT contributes to the greater use of intermodal transportation thus contributing to sustainability. To stimulate stakeholders to participate in such projects, they need to be proven economically sustainable as well. This article analyzes the financial risks of investing into an IMT in Belgrade (Republic of Serbia). The scientific contribution of the article is in being the first to use a stochastic financial evaluation model for assessing the development of an IMT. The article analyzes the financial risk probability over real-world data, considering the stochastic nature of container flow volumes and the prices of logistics services. The risk probability, as an output result of the used simulation model, is derived from the probability distribution of three distinct financial parameters – net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and the benefit-cost ratio (B/C). The results of the analysis indicate that the development of the IMT is financially justified, with relatively low investment risk.

Keywords

• Intermodal transportation
• Intermodal terminal
• Stochastic analysis
• Net present value
• Internal rate of return
• Benefit-cost ratio