Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira (Nov 2019)

Geographical distribution of the incubation period of coffee leaf rust in climate change scenarios

  • Waldenilza Monteiro Vital Alfonsi,
  • Priscila Pereira Coltri,
  • Jurandir Zullo Júnior,
  • Flávia Rodrigues Alves Patrício,
  • Renata Ribeiro do Valle Gonçalves,
  • Kaio Shinji,
  • Eduardo Lauriano Alfonsi,
  • Andrea Koga-Vicente

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1590/s1678-3921.pab2019.v54.00273
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 54

Abstract

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Abstract: The objective of this work was to simulate the geographical distribution of the incubation period of coffee leaf rust in Coffea arabica, using data of two regional climate models, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5. The scenario of high greenhouse gas emission (RCP 8.5 W m-2) was used for the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, Brazil, for current and future climate scenarios. The behavior of six different regression equations for incubation period (IP), available in the literature, was also analyzed as affected by data from the regional climate models. The results indicate the possibility of an increase in the affected area in the studied region, when the IP is less than 19 days, from 0.5% for Eta-MIROC5 to 14.2% for Eta-HadGEM2-ES. The severity of coffee leaf rust in future scenarios should increase in the hottest and wettest months of the year, extending to the driest and coldest months. The potential of rust infection is estimated differently by the studied equations. In higher temperature scenarios, the Kushalappa & Martins equation indicates a very high severity potential.

Keywords