Higher Onshore Wind Energy Potentials Revealed by Kilometer‐Scale Atmospheric Modeling

Abstract

Abstract Reliable and highly resolved information about onshore wind energy potential (WEP) is essential for expanding renewable energy to eventually achieve carbon neutrality. In this pilot study, simulated 60 m wind speeds (ws60m) from a km‐scale, convection‐permitting 3.3 km‐resolution ICON‐LAM simulation and often‐used 31 km‐resolution ERA5 reanalysis are evaluated at 18 weather masts. The estimated ICON‐LAM and ERA5 WEPs are then compared using an innovative approach with 1.8 million eligible wind turbine placements over southern Africa. Results show ERA5 underestimates ws60m with a Mean Error (ME) of −1.8 m s−1 (−27%). In contrast, ICON‐LAM shows a ME of −0.1 m s−1 (−1.8%), resulting in a much higher average WEP by 48% compared to ERA5. A combined Global Wind Atlas‐ERA5 product reduces the ws60m underestimation of ERA5 to −0.3 m s−1 (−4.7%), but shows a similar average WEP compared to ERA5 resulting from the WEP spatial heterogeneity.

Keywords

• renewable energy
• ERA5
• ICON‐LAM
• Global Wind Atlas
• convection‐permitting regional climate modeling
• southern Africa