Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model
Baoliang Chang,
Chen Huang,
Bingming Chen,
Ziwen Wang,
Xingyuan He,
Wei Chen,
Yanqing Huang,
Yue Zhang,
Shuai Yu
Affiliations
Baoliang Chang
CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang China
Chen Huang
College of Horticulture, Key Laboratory of Landscape Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, East China Key Laboratory of Flower Biology, Key Laboratory of Flower Biology and Germplasm Creation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Nanjing Agricultural University, State Forestry and Grassland Administration Nanjing China
Bingming Chen
CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang China
Ziwen Wang
CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang China
Xingyuan He
CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang China
Wei Chen
CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang China
Yanqing Huang
CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang China
Yue Zhang
CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang China
Shuai Yu
CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang China
Abstract Climate change is poised to exert a significant impact on species distribution in the future, and Taxus cuspidata as an endangered species is no exception. Predicting the potential distribution of T. cuspidata is essential for decision‐makers to develop conservation policies and explicitly implement conservation measures. In this study, a combined model was employed to predict potentially suitable habitats for T. cuspidata based on extant data of T. cuspidata distributions in northeastern China. Our findings suggest that mean diurnal range (bio2) and isothermality (bio3) were identified as dominant factors influencing T. cuspidata distribution. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas increased only in the SSP126 scenario in the 2070s, declining in all other scenarios. In all climate scenarios, the centroid of suitable habitats ultimately shows a trend in northward movement. Decreases in suitable habitat predominantly occurred in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, Baishan city, and Tonghua city. Overall, this study highlights a projected habitat reduction due to climate change. Recommendations entail the strategic establishment of nature reserves and the implementation of initiatives aimed at population replenishment.
