Global prevalence, burden and trend in HIV and drug-susceptible tuberculosis co-infection from 1990 to 2019 and prediction to 2040
Longhao Wang,
Hengliang Lv,
Xueli Zhang,
Xin Zhang,
Junzhu Bai,
Shumeng You,
Xuan Li,
Yong Wang,
Jingli Du,
Yue Su,
Weilin Huang,
Yingzhong Dai,
Wenyi Zhang,
Yuanyong Xu
Affiliations
Longhao Wang
Department of Health Statistics, Faculty of Military Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University, Chongqing, China; Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
Hengliang Lv
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Xueli Zhang
Changchun University of Chinese Medicine, Changchun, China
Xin Zhang
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Junzhu Bai
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Shumeng You
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Xuan Li
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
Yong Wang
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
Jingli Du
Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Key Laboratory/Beijing Key Laboratory of New Techniques of Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment, Senior Department of Tuberculosis, The 8th Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
Yue Su
Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Key Laboratory/Beijing Key Laboratory of New Techniques of Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment, Senior Department of Tuberculosis, The 8th Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
Weilin Huang
College of Basic Medicine, Army Medical University, Chongqing, China
Yingzhong Dai
College of Basic Medicine, Army Medical University, Chongqing, China
Wenyi Zhang
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
Yuanyong Xu
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China; Corresponding author. 20, East Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, China.
Objectives: The purpose of this study is to describe the current situation and forecast the trends of co-infection between the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB) in different countries, across various age groups and genders. Methods: We obtained data on the number of cases, age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized death rate from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. These data were used to describe the distribution and burden of co-infection between the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and DS-TB in different regions, genders, and age groups. We employed joinpoint regression analysis to analyze the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, an age-period-cohort model was established to forecast the future trends of co-infection up to 2040. Results: The prevalence and burden of co-infection varied across different age groups and genders. The territories with the higher disease burden were distributed in some Asian and African countries. In terms of temporal trends, the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of HIV and DS-TB co-infection exhibited an overall increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, and the prediction indicated a slow downward trend from 2019 to 2040. Conclusions: The co-infection of HIV and DS-TB posed a grave threat to public health and economic development. What’s more, there existed a significant disparity between the actual state of co-infection and the desired goals for prevention and control.
