Cancer Management and Research (Sep 2019)
Recent insights into breast cancer incidence trends among four Asian countries using age-period-cohort model
Abstract
Sumaira Mubarik1, Saima Shakil Malik2, Zhenkun Wang3, Chunhui Li4, Muhammad Fawad5, Chuanhua Yu1,6 1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 2Microbiology and Biotechnology Research Lab., Fatima Jinnah Women University, The Mall Rawalpindi 46000, Pakistan; 3Human Resource Department, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430071, People’s Republic of China; 4Key Laboratory of Environment and Health (HUST), Ministry of Education & Ministry of Environmental Protection, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430071, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 5School of Mathematics and Statistics, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 6Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, Hubei, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Chuanhua YuDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, Hubei, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86 276 875 9299Email [email protected]: Breast cancer is one of the rapidly increasing cancers among women and a significant cause of cancer-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. Therefore, the current study was designed to examine and compare trends of breast cancer incidence (BCI) during the observed period (1990–2015) in specific age groups and investigate age-specific, time period, and birth cohort-related effects on BCI in China, India, Pakistan, and Thailand.Patients and method: Data related to BCI were retrieved from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Age–period–cohort model joint with intrinsic estimator algorithm was used to estimate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on BCI. BCI rates were analyzed among different age groups ranging from 20 to 84 years in specified periods.Result: Overall, results showed an increasing trend of BCI among four Asian countries during the study period especially in age groups 50 to 84 years. Higher incidence rates were observed in 2015 in the age group 70–74, 65–69, 50–54, and 60–64 in Pakistan, China, India, and Thailand, respectively. Age period cohort analysis revealed significantly raised effect of age and period and declined effect of the cohort on incidence rates.Conclusion: The current study reported increased BCI with time in selected four Asian countries. Overall, BCI remained high in Pakistan as compared to China, India, and Thailand. Although proper registries are not available in most of the developing Asian countries, the current study highlighted the increased incidence and may play an essential role in registries development or spreading awareness against this disease. Therefore, maintaining proper records to build registries at the national level along with advancements in breast cancer screening and treatment are highly recommended to deal with the increasing burden of this disease.Keywords: breast cancer, incidence, age–period–cohort model, APC, trend, Asia
