Probability distributions for wind speed volatility characteristics: A case study of Northern Norway

Abstract

The Norwegian Arctic is rich in wind resources. The development of wind power in this region can boost green energy and also promote local economies. In wind power engineering, it is a tremendous advantage to base projects on a sound understanding of the intrinsic properties of wind resources in an area. Wind speed volatility, a phenomenon that strongly affects wind power generation, has not received sufficient research attention. In this paper, a framework for studying short-term wind speed volatility with statistical analysis and probabilistic modeling is constructed for an existing wind farm in Northern Norway. It is found that unlike the characteristics of wind power volatility, wind speed volatility cannot be described by the normal distribution. The reason is that even though the probability distribution of wind speed volatility is centrally symmetric, it is much more centrally concentrated and has thicker tails. After comparing three distributions corresponding to different sampling periods, this paper suggests utilizing the t distribution, with average modeling RMSE less than 0.006 and R2 exceeding 0.995 and with the best modeling scenario of temporal resolution, the 30 mins has an RMSE of 0.0051 and an R2 of 0.997, to more accurately and effectively explore the fluctuating characteristics of wind speed.

Keywords

• Wind energy
• Wind speed volatility
• Statistical analysis
• Probability distribution
• Arctic