Integrating Long Tide Gauge Records with Projection Modelling Outputs. A Case Study: New York

Abstract

Sea level rise is one of the key artefacts of a warming climate which is predicted to have profound impacts for coastal communities over the course of the 21st century and beyond. The IPCC provide regular updates (5–7 years) on the global status of the science and projections of climate change to assist guide policy, adaptation and mitigation endeavours. Increasingly sophisticated climate modelling tools are being used to underpin these processes with demand for improved resolution of modelling output products (such as predicted sea level rise) at a more localized scale. With a decade of common coverage between observational data and CMIP5 projection model outputs (2007–2016), this analysis provides an additional method by which to test the veracity of model outputs to replicate in-situ measurements using the case study site of New York. Results indicate that the mean relative velocity of the model projection products is of the order of 2.5–2.8 mm/year higher than the tide gauge results in 2016. In the event this phenomena is more spatially represented, there is a significant role for long tide gauge records to assist in evaluating climate model products to improve scientific rigour.

Keywords

• mean sea level
• velocity
• acceleration
• CMIP5 projection modelling
• New York