EARLY WARNING SIGNALS OF MILITARY COUPS

Abstract

The following paper focuses on the identification of basic early warning signals of military coups. The primary purpose is to use a theoretical framework of coups and create a list of factors that increase the probability of upcoming or ongoing military coups. This list will be applied to a case study of Montenegro, which recently experienced an attempt of overthrowing its government.

Keywords

• early warning system
• security indicators
• military coup
• montenegro
• violence
• prediction