Forecasting Vietnamese stock index: A comparison of hierarchical ANFIS and LSTM

Abstract

Forecasting stock index has been received great interest because an accurate prediction of stock index may yield benefits and profits for investors, economists and practitioners. The objective of this study is to develop two efficient forecasting models and compare their performances in one day-ahead forecasting the daily Vietnamese stock index. The model development used the data across 9 years of the trading days. The developed models are based on two artificial intelligence techniques, including adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and long short-term memory (LSTM). The performance indexes including RMSE, MAPE, MAE and R were used to make comparison of the models. The experimental results reveal that both models successfully forecasted the daily Vietnamese stock index with a high accuracy rate. The comparative results of the two models were then discussed and analyzed. It was found that the LSTM model outperformed the hierarchical ANFIS model in forecasting stock index of the Vietnamese stock market.

Keywords

• vietnamese stock index
• forecasting
• adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (anfis)
• long short-term memory (lstm)