CALCULATION OF CLIMATE LOADS DESIGN VALUES ACCORDING TO THE PROBABILITY MODEL OF ANNUAL MAXIMUM SERIES

Abstract

The aim of this work is to improve a method for determining the characteristic values of climatic loads according to a probabilistic model of the annual maxima sequence, by choosing a rational type of generalized extreme value distribution law. An analysis is provided regarding the suitability of using four types of distributions for describing a data collection of maximum values of climatic loads. Using example data from the meteorological stations of Ukraine, it is found that for coefficients of variation smaller than 0.85–1.0, it is advisable to use the double exponential Gumbel distribution (generalized extreme value distribution type-I), and at higher values of the coefficient of variation, it is advisable to use the Weibull distribution (generalized extreme value distribution type-III). Recommendations are provided for considering the accuracy in the estimations of the characteristic values of loads according to the probabilistic model for the annual maximum value series.

Keywords

• annual maxima
• characteristic values
• climatic loads
• probabilistic description