The estimation of seismic risk for central Italy

Abstract

The estimation of seismic risk is made for three types of objects in the central Italy, considering three kinds of models: 1) - A(2I,g): the intensity of the Poisson's flow of earthquakes, M being the magnitude, g the liypocentre. 2) - I(g,g,M): giving the distribution on the surface for a single earthquake (g,M), g being the epicentre. 3) - x(g,I): giving the effect x of the shakings of intensity / , g being the position of the object. For actual decision-making additional computations may be necessary in order to estimate how our results are influenced by the errors in these models. However practical decision can be made on the basis of these data, because the experience shows that normally results are exagerated.