Comprehensive climatic variability analysis and its significance on flood occurrences in the Middle Ganga Plain, India

Abstract

Abstract Climate variability significantly affects rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation. In subtropical regions like India, intense monsoon rainfall primarily causes floods. This study aims to analyze the climatic factors contributing to flood occurrence in the Middle Ganga Plain (MGP) by examining meteorological parameters through various analyses, including monthly and yearly trends, spatial variability, exceedance probability, historical highest intensity rainfall, and wind trajectory analysis. By establishing a strong link between climatic variables and flood events, this research provides valuable insights into the impact of climate variability on flood patterns in the MGP. Results indicate that monsoon rainfall peaks from July to October, correlating with major flood events. During these months, high relative humidity increases the likelihood of rainfall. Spatial analysis shows higher rainfall in the northern Middle Ganga Plain (MGP), which aligns with observed flood patterns. Trend detection tests reveal increasing annual rainfall and rising average temperatures. Geostatistical analysis identifies the western and eastern MGP as areas prone to extreme rainfall. Exceedance probability analysis confirms the occurrence of substantial monsoon rainfall events. Wind trajectory analysis uncovers seasonal shifts that lead to low-pressure systems and heavy monsoon rainfall. The study establishes a strong link between climatic variables and flood events in the MGP region.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Middle Ganga Plain
• Climate variability
• Spatial modelling
• Trend analysis