ComHazAsTC-RRE: Compound Hazard Assessment of Tropical Cyclones within Repeatable, Reproducible, and Expandable Framework

Abstract

Compound hazards caused by tropical cyclones involve interactions among multiple hazards, such as wind, rainfall, and storm surge, significantly increasing the uncertainty and destructiveness of disasters. Existing studies primarily focus on probabilistic analyses of single or dual hazards associated with tropical cyclones, revealing limitations in handling high-dimensional data and complex dependencies. This study developed the ComHazAsTC-RRE (Compound Hazard Assessment of Tropical Cyclones within Repeatable, Reproducible, and Expandable Framework) model to analyze the compound hazards of wind, rainfall, and storm surge induced by tropical cyclones and successfully applied it to China’s coast. We collected globally accessible daily records of maximum wind speed, cumulative rainfall, and maximum storm surge for China’s coastal areas from 1979 to 2018. Using a C-Vine Copula with wind speed as the core, incorporating rainfall and storm surge as branches, we accurately captured complex dependencies of tropical cyclones. Our various return period analyses underscore the importance of considering multiple hazards and their interactions. Additionally, the application of Compound Hazard Index in China reveals that southeastern coastal areas are subjected to significantly higher compound hazards, driven by high wind speeds and strong spatial–temporal consistency of hazards. An in-depth analysis of failure probabilities indicates that neglecting the interactions among hazards can result in substantial additional cost for engineering projects, especially during severe tropical cyclones. This study offers new perspectives and scientific tools for understanding and addressing compound hazards, formulating effective disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, and supporting the sustainable development of coastal regions worldwide.

Keywords

• Tropical cyclone
• Compound hazard
• Repeatable, reproducible, and expandable (RRE)
• Sustainable development
• China’s coast
• Vine copula.