Uncertainty Analysis for Natural Gas Transport Pipeline Network Layout: A New Methodology Based on Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

Natural gas plays an increasing important role in the China’s energy revolution. The rapid market development and refined government regulation demand improvements in the natural gas transport pipeline network. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to conduct a study regarding the layout of pipeline networks. To reflect the comprehensive benefits of pipeline projects and obtain global optimal solution, this study introduces the dominance degree model (DDM). Aiming at optimizing the layout of natural gas transport pipeline networks, this paper studies the uncertainty of the DDM and the corresponding method for network layout. This study proposes an uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method to quantify the uncertainty of the DDM and its influential factors. Finally, the methodology is applied to the real case of a natural gas transport pipeline project in Zhejiang Province, China. The calculation results suggest that the methodology appropriately addresses the problem of pipeline network layout for natural gas transport. This has important implications for other potential pipeline networks not only in the Zhejiang Province but also throughout China and beyond.