Diagnostics of financial stability of agricultural enterprises of dairy cattle breeding of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Study of foreign crisis-forecasting models

Abstract

Dairy farming, as one of the components of agriculture in Kazakhstan, plays a crucial role for the effective development of the industry and the country, which makes its constant study relevant. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine different models for predicting the performance of dairy farming enterprises and their financial stability. The methods that were applied within the study were analysis, forecasting, and abstraction. Within the framework of this study, the authors considered various models of ensuring financial stability for the enterprises of this sphere in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Furthermore, the state of the dairy industry in Kazakhstan was assessed, emphasising its significant potential to contribute to the agricultural sector. Some difficulties that arise within the framework of the development of this sphere in the country were described, such as dependence on imports of certain types of products and insufficient production of certain types of goods of the industry. Shortcomings also exist in terms of milk quality and its export, specifically to China. The study also proposed crisis prediction models. One of them was a model based on the logit regression approach, which included seven coefficients that helped to identify organisations experiencing financial difficulties, assess the boundary values of financial stability, rank organisations, and accurately predict the risk of financial crisis. It was shown that its use can allow for increased efficiency in the functioning of agriculture. The study brought new knowledge for the research of the agricultural sphere of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The findings provide a better understanding of the foreign features of forecast model construction and allow enterprises and government representatives to improve the construction of such models

Keywords

• finance
• macroeconomics
• trade
• investment
• econometric analysis