Econometric modelling of bank activities: value-based approach to the problem loans terms’ rescheduling

Abstract

The permanent state of the financial crisis has predictably brought to the forefront such traditional problem of banking as problem loans. This research aims to work out an econometric approach to the solution of the problem of loans terms’ rescheduling. For this purpose, we, firstly, treated credit as a bank’s investment project with cashflows’ chart including initial outflow (principal) and following inflows represented by loan payments. Secondly, we combined the schematic representation of loan’s cashflows with NPV formula accustomed to loan’s cashflows and it allowed to create the econometric models for three types of loan: classic, annuity, serial. Thirdly, for the case when borrower breaks a loan’s payment schedule and it leads to the reduction of loan’s NPV and loss of the wealth of bank’s shareholders, respectively, we outlined special compensative models of cashflows where default in payment is interpreted by the lender as an additional forced loan. We suggested modifying the loan terms (interest rate or effective period of the loan agreement) for the rest of payment periods. Fourthly, we laid the special compensative models of forced loans’ cashflows a top corresponded initial cashflows of loans and this has made it possible to get formulas calculating the modified interest rate and the additional number of loans’ payment periods with the aid of backward calculation. As a result, we developed the econometric models of the loan terms’ modifications based on the prolongation of the initial credit period and the increasing of the initial interest rate.