Global years lived with disability for musculoskeletal disorders in adults 70 Years and older from 1990 to 2019, and projections to 2040
Can Chen,
Yuxia Du,
Kexin Cao,
Yue You,
Lucheng Pi,
Daixi Jiang,
Mengya Yang,
Xiaoyue Wu,
Mengsha Chen,
Wenkai Zhou,
Jiaxing Qi,
Dingmo Chen,
Rui Yan,
Changtai Zhu,
Shigui Yang
Affiliations
Can Chen
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Yuxia Du
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Kexin Cao
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Yue You
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Lucheng Pi
Shenzhen Bao'an Chinese Medicine Hospital, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, China
Daixi Jiang
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Mengya Yang
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Xiaoyue Wu
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Mengsha Chen
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Wenkai Zhou
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Jiaxing Qi
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Dingmo Chen
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Rui Yan
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
Changtai Zhu
Department of Transfusion Medicine, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China; Corresponding author. Address: No. 600 Yishan Road, Shanghai, China.
Shigui Yang
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China; Corresponding author. Address: 866 Yuhangtang road, Hangzhou, China.
In this article, we provided a comprehensive overview and in-depth analysis of global patterns and temporal trends in years lived with disability (YLDs) for musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in individuals aged ≥70. Data on YLDs for MSK disorders in individuals aged ≥70 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to assess the temporal trends in the YLDs rate of MSK disorders. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to predict the YLDs rate up to the year 2040. In 2019, the global rate of YLDs for MSK disorders in individuals aged ≥70 were 4819.81 (95 % UI: 3402.91 - 6550.77) per 100,000 persons. The YLDs rate of MSK disorders in female was 1.36 times higher than that in male, and was highest in high SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global YLDs rate showed a slightly downward trend (AAPC = −0.04 %, 95 % CI: −0.06 % to −0.03 %), while it significantly increased in high, low-middle, low SDI regions. Tobacco and high body mass index were the primary risk factors worldwide, while in low SDI regions, occupational risks emerged as the predominant factors. Up to 2040, the global YLDs rate of MSK disorders are expected to increase by 1.78 %, with 36.39 %, 20.66 %, 18.96 % and 5.32 % growth in other MSK disorders, rheumatoid arthritis, neck pain and osteoarthritis. MSK disorders are a significant and continuously growing public health concern among older adults. Tailored interventions should be developed for older adults, taking into account the variations across distributions, trends, and risk factors in terms of sex and SDI levels.
