End-of-discharge prediction for satellite lithium-ion battery based on evidential reasoning rule

Abstract

To ensure the safety of the power supply for an in-orbit satellite, it is of great significance to accurately predict the end-of-discharge time of lithium-ion batteries for making a reasonable flight plan. Constrained by development time and experimental environment, it is usually difficult to obtain many full discharge voltage curves of satellite batteries from ground experiments as historical data. Because of insufficient data, the prediction accuracy of the single time series prediction method is low. To solve this problem, this paper takes the voltage of the discharge process as the time series and uses the evidential reasoning rule algorithm to fuse the outputs of three typical prediction models to improve the prediction accuracy. The result can be expressed as a form of belief degree distribution with the ability to express uncertainty. Using the NASA battery dataset, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified, and the end-of-discharge of an in-orbit satellite battery is predicted by the telemetry data.

Keywords

• end-of-discharge
• lithium-ion battery
• evidential reasoning rule
• prediction