Risk and Resilience Assessment of Lisbon’s School Buildings Based on Seismic Scenarios

Abstract

The safety and resilience of school buildings against natural disasters is of paramount importance since schools represent a reference point for communities. Such significance is not only related to the direct consequences of collapse on a vulnerable part of the population, but also due to the importance of schools in the post-disaster recovery. This work is focused on the risk and resilience assessment of school buildings in Lisbon (Portugal) under seismic events. The results of this study, in which a subset of 32 schools are analyzed, are used to define a prioritization strategy to mitigate the seismic risk of the Lisbon City Council school building portfolio and to assess the overall resilience of the school network. Numerical modeling of the school buildings is performed in order to estimate losses in terms of the built-up area of the schools and recovery times associated with different seismic scenarios, which are probabilistically defined specifically for the sites of the buildings, accounting for the local soil conditions and associated amplification effects. Based on the obtained risk estimates, which are compared to reference values established on international guidelines and specialized literature, the Lisbon City Council and LNEC jointly defined a short- and medium-term risk mitigation plan, starting with a detailed inspection and assessment of the most vulnerable school buildings and continuing to the implementation of retrofitting measures.

Keywords

• seismic risk
• resilience
• risk mitigation
• scenario-based analysis
• numerical modeling
• decision-making