Tropical and Polar Oceanic Influences on the Cold Extremes in East Asia: Implications of the Cold Surges in 2020/2021 Winter

Abstract

East-Asia winter cooling and the associated atmospheric and oceanic influences were investigated based on the wintertime daily temperature and circulation fields during 1950–2020. Both the case study on the 2020/2021 cold surge and the large-sample clustering in the recent 71 winters extracted similar circulation signatures for East-Asia cooling, which are featured by the blocking-related anticyclonic circulation in North Eurasia, large-scale mid-to-high-latitude wave trains, decrease in the sea surface temperature (SST) in tropical Pacific, and the sea-ice cover (SIC) reduction in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). From the joint clustering of Eurasian circulation and temperature, two circulation modes that have a cooling effect on East Asia account for 41% of winter days. One of the two modes is characterized by the cyclonic circulation over Northeast Asia coupled with a southward-extending negative-phase Arctic Oscillation (AO−), whose cooling effect is mainly concentrated in central Siberia. The other cooling mode, featuring an anticyclonic circulation over the Urals and AO+ in middle-to-high latitudes, has a relatively stronger cooling effect on lower latitudes, including Mongolia and North China. In general, the occurrences of the mode with warming/cooling effect on East Asia show an overall downward/upward trend. The two cooling modes are significantly influenced by the La Niña-type SST anomaly and reduced SIC in BKS through large-scale wave trains, of which the tropical oceanic forcing mainly acts as a climatic background. Furthermore, the polar forcing is more tightly bound to internal atmospheric variability. Therefore, the tropical SST tends to exert impact over a seasonal scale, but the SIC influence is more significant below the intraseasonal scale; moreover, the synergy between the tropical and polar oceanic forcing can increase the East-Asia cooling days by 3–4% and cold extremes by 5%, mainly through enhancing the AO-related circulation mode.

Keywords

• East-Asia cold surge
• tropical ocean
• sea-ice melting
• synergy effect