Estimating the Climate Niche of <i>Sclerotinia sclerotiorum</i> Using Maximum Entropy Modeling

Abstract

Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, a fungal pathogen, causes world-wide crop losses and additional disease management strategies are needed. Modeling the climate niche of this fungus may offer a tool for the selection of biological control organisms and cultural methods of control. Maxent, a modeling technique, was used to characterize the climate niche for the fungus. The technique requires disease occurrence data, bioclimatic data layers, and geospatial analysis. A cross-correlation was performed with ArcGIS 10.8.1, to reduce nineteen bioclimatic variables (WorldClim) to nine variables. The model results were evaluated by AUC (area under the curve). A final model was created with the random seed procedure of Maxent and gave an average AUC of 0.935 with an AUC difference of −0.008. The most critical variables included annual precipitation (importance: 14.1%) with a range of 450 mm to 2500 mm and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (importance: 55.6%) with a range of −16 °C to 24 °C, which contributed the most to the final model. A habitat suitability map was generated in ArcGIS 10.8.1 from the final Maxent model. The final model was validated by comparing results with another occurrence dataset. A Z-Score statistical test confirmed no significant differences between the two datasets for all suitability areas.

Keywords

• <i>Sclerotinia sclerotiorum</i>
• maximum entropy modeling
• climate niche
• bioclimatic variables