The Photovoltaic Output Prediction Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Maximum Relevance Minimum Redundancy

Abstract

Photovoltaic output is affected by solar irradiance, ambient temperature, instantaneous cloud cluster, etc., and the output sequence shows obvious intermittent and random features, which creates great difficulty for photovoltaic output prediction. Aiming at the problem of low predictability of photovoltaic power generation, a combined photovoltaic output prediction method based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), maximum relevance minimum redundancy (mRMR) and deep belief network (DBN) is proposed. The method uses VMD to decompose the photovoltaic output sequence into modal components of different characteristics, and determines the main characteristic factors of each modal component by mRMR, and the DBN model is used to fit the modal components and the corresponding characteristic factors, then the predicted results of each modal component is superimposed to obtain the predicted value of the photovoltaic output. By using the data of a certain photovoltaic power station in Yunnan for comparative experiments, it is found that the model proposed in this paper improves the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic output.

Keywords

• photovoltaic output prediction
• VMD
• mRMR
• DBN
• feature selection