An Efficient Word Embedding and Deep Learning Based Model to Forecast the Direction of Stock Exchange Market Using Twitter and Financial News Sites: A Case of Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST 100)

Abstract

To forecast the movement directions of stocks, exchange rates, and stock markets are significant and an active research area for investors, analysts, and researchers. In this paper, word embedding and deep learning-based direction prediction of Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST 100) is proposed by analyzing nine banking stocks with high volume in BIST 100. Though English news articles have been employed for forecasting of market direction previously, to the best of our knowledge, Turkish news articles and user comments from social media and different platforms have not been utilized with the combination of deep learning techniques and word embedding methods to predict the direction of Turkish stocks and market. For this objective, long short-term memory networks, recurrent neural networks, convolutional neural networks as deep learning algorithms and Word2Vec, GloVe, and FastText as word embedding models are evaluated. To demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed model, four different sources of Turkish news are collected. The news articles about stocks from Public Disclosure Platform (KAP), text-based technical analysis of each stock from Bigpara, user comments from both Twitter and Mynet Finans platforms are gathered. Experiment results demonstrate that the combination of deep learning techniques and word embedding methods have a great potential to predict the direction of BIST 100.

Keywords

• Deep learning techniques
• financial sentiment analysis
• stock market prediction
• word embedding methods