Mid-term scheduling and trading decisions for cascade hydropower stations considering multiple variable uncertainties

Abstract

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Cascade hydropower producers face two stages of risk when participating in medium and long-term market transactions: transaction risk during the bidding stage; and the operational risk during the scheduling and operation stage due to the uncertainty of runoff and market-clearing prices. Therefore, how to measure the above risks and make corresponding decisions has become an urgent problem for producers.This paper combines the real market structure and rules of a certain hydropower dominated market in Southwest China, and establishes a mid-term operation and trading decision-making method based on the Joint Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) and Prospect Theory. To address the main uncertainty variables that producers face in participating in transactions, this paper obtains the maximum fluctuation range of variables that satisfy the expected revenue in a robust model based on IGDT. Then, using Prospect Theory, a bidding strategy model that takes into account the psychological factors of producers is constructed within this range.To solve the nonlinear programming problem and address the accuracy issues caused by curve fitting during the solution process, a nonlinear programming combined with an improved stepwise optimization hybrid algorithm is employed.Using actual data from a hydropower grid in southwest China participating in the market as an example. The results indicate that the method provides the fluctuation range of runoff and market prices under different expected return targets, and can formulate reasonable bidding decisions and operation plans based on producers different risk preferences within this range.

Keywords

• power market
• information gap decision theory
• prospect theory
• robust optimization
• cascade hydropower stations
• risk decision