Rapid PM_2.5-Induced Health Impact Assessment: A Novel Approach Using Conditional U-Net CMAQ Surrogate Model

Abstract

There is a pressing need for tools that can rapidly predict PM2.5 concentrations and assess health impacts under various emission scenarios, aiding in the selection of optimal mitigation strategies. Traditional chemical transport models (CTMs) like CMAQ are accurate but computationally intensive, limiting practical scenario analysis. To address this, we propose a novel method integrating a conditional U-Net surrogate model with health impact assessments, enabling swift estimation of PM2.5 concentrations and related health effects. The U-Net model was trained with 2019 South Korean PM2.5 data, including precursor emissions and boundary conditions. Our model showed high accuracy and significant efficiency, reducing processing times while maintaining reliability. By combining this surrogate model with the EPA’s BenMAP-CE tool, we estimated potential premature deaths under various emission reduction scenarios in South Korea, extending projections to 2050 to account for demographic changes. Additionally, we assessed the required PM2.5 emission reductions needed to counteract the increase in premature deaths due to an aging population. This integrated framework offers an efficient, user-friendly tool that bridges complex air quality modeling with practical policy evaluation, supporting the development of effective strategies to reduce PM2.5-related health risks and estimate economic benefits.

Keywords

• air pollutant prediction
• CMAQ surrogate model
• health impact assessment