Prediction of petroleum resource abundance based on artificial neural network method: a case study of third member of Paleogene Shahejie Formation in Wenliu area of Dongpu Sag, Bohai Bay Basin

Abstract

The abundance of petroleum resource is influenced by various factors and involves complex parameters and extensive data. Consequently, traditional geostatistical methods often lack precision in quantitative prediction. To address this issue, this study focuses on the third member of Paleogene Shahejie Formation (member Es3) in the Wenliu area of the Dongpu Sag and utilizes a multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLP) for predicting petroleum resource abundance and employed the Boosting ensemble learning algorithm to optimize the prediction model. The MLP and MLP-Boosting algorithm models were test on 66 sample groups, yielding correlation coefficients of 0.789 and 0.989 for the training set, 0.618 and 0.825 for the validation set and 0.689 and 0.845 for the test set. The analysis identified effective thickness, average permeability and effective porosity are the most significant geological factors influencing petroleum resource abundance, with importance coefficients of 33.93%, 20.12% and 19.53%, respectively. Other factors such as trap area, surface crude oil density and sedimentary facies assignment were found to be less influential. Overall, the Boosting ensemble learning algorithm significantly enhanced the prediction accuracy of the multi-layer perceptron model, offering valuable insights for target optimization, exploration planning and petroleum resource evaluation in other blocks in the sag.

Keywords

• machine learning
• neural network
• prediction model
• resource abundance
• dongpu sag
• bohai bay basin