Optimal agricultural structure allocation based on carbon source/sink accounting

Abstract

China has implemented policies to promote fuel ethanol development and achieve its dual-carbon goal. Under the policy, the significant modifications will occur in the allocation of land use resources within ethanol raw material cultivation regions. In the process of land use change, ensuring food provision and protecting the regional carbon sink are also crucial for sustainable development. This study explores carbon distribution in the Guiping section of the Yujiang River basin, where bioethanol raw materials are cultivated. Using the CLUE-S model, a multi-objective model prioritizing economic and ecological benefits is constructed. Four scenarios (i.e., the natural expansion scenario (NES); the food conservation scenario (FCS); the bioethanol feedstock conservation scenario (BCS), and the carbon sinks conservation scenario (CCS) are simulated, predicting land resource distribution by 2030. The total carbon sink decreased by 285.60 gC·m−2·a−1, showing a seasonal trend of higher levels in summer and lower levels in winter. In 2030, the total carbon sink decreased in the NES scenario, while it increased in the FCS and BCS scenarios. The CCS scenario had the largest increase, approximately 582.27 × 103 tC. These simulated scenarios consider various economic and environmental factors, providing a scientific basis for the efficient allocation of regional land resources. They also have significant implications for local energy, economic, and environmentally sustainable development, as well as promoting the achievement of carbon neutrality.

Keywords

• Land Use
• Net ecosystem productivity (NEP)
• Low carbon
• Sustainable development