Impact of environmental change on runoff in a transitional basin: Tao River Basin from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau, China

Abstract

Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management. Trends and abrupt change points of the hydro-climatic variables in the Tao River Basin were investigated during 1956–2015. It also quantitatively separates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the Tao River by using RCC-WBM model. Results indicate that temperature presented a significant rising trend (0.2 °C per decade) while precipitation exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend (3.8 mm per decade) during 1956–2015. Recorded runoff in the Tao River decreased significantly with a magnitude of −13.7 mm per decade and abrupt changes in 1968 and 1986 were identified. Relative to the baseline period (1956–1968), runoff in the two anthropogenic disturbed periods of 1969–1986 and 1987–2015 decreased by 27.8 mm and 76.5 mm, respectively, which can be attributed to human activities (accounting for 69%) and climate change (accounting for 31%). Human activities are the principal drivers of runoff reduction in the Tao River Basin. However, the absolute influences on runoff reductions by the both drivers tend to increase, from 7.7 mm in 1969–1986 to 24.4 mm in 1987–2015 by climate change and from 20.2 mm to 52.2 mm by human activities. Keywords: Climate change, Human activity, Runoff change, RCCC-WBM model, Runoff naturalization, Attribution analysis, Tao River Basin