Surface Wave Mixing Modifies Projections of 21st Century Ocean Heat Uptake

Abstract

Climate models do not explicitly account for the smaller scale processes of ocean surface waves. However, many large-scale phenomena are essentially coupled with the waves. In particular, waves enhance mixing in the upper ocean and thereby accelerate the ocean response to atmospheric changes. Here, we introduced a representation of wave-induced turbulent mixing into the one-way coupled ACCESS-OM2-025 ocean model to study its effect on ocean heat content throughout the 21st century under the RCP4.5 scenario. We made two projections on ocean heat uptake for the end of the century: one which accounts for wave-induced mixing (the ‘modified’ projection) and the other which does not (the ‘standard’ projection). Both projections showed upper ocean heat content to increase by more than 2.2 × 1022 J. This projected ocean heat uptake was reduced by about 3% in the modified projection. Whilst the inclusion of wave-induced mixing reduces projected ocean heat uptake globally, some areas are expected to warm considerably faster, particularly the North Atlantic sub-tropics, the Tasman Sea, the Sea of Japan, and parts of the South Atlantic.

Keywords

• surface-gravity waves
• wave-induced mixing
• upper-ocean turbulence
• ocean heat uptake
• climate change projection
• ocean modelling