Another Evidence of an Increasing Trend in the Incidence of Breast Cancer in Developing Countries Over the Recent Years

Abstract

Background: We examined and estimated the trend of breast cancer incidence in Kerman, the largest province in Iran. Method: Having compiling the data of new cases from three sources (cancer registry, pathology, radiotherapy) in this longitudinal study, the number of untouched cases was estimated using log-linear model. We estimated the annual age-standardized rate (ASR) per 100,000 women in 2001-2015. We utilized joint point regression method to estimate the trend of breast cancer incidence during the examined years. Results: The ASR of breast cancer increased from 25 in 2001-2005 to 37 in 2011- 2015, showing that the annual average percentage increased by 5.9% (95% Confidence Interval: 3.5, 8.4, p <0.001). Moreover, during this period, the completeness of the cancer registry increased from 16% in the first five years to 70% in the last five years. Conclusion: Our findings revealed that the coverage of the cancer registry increased significantly. It seems that part of the increasing trend of the reported cancer incidence was attributed to the enhancement of the cancer registry scheme, but our findings suggested that the real incidence of breast cancer had a growing trend.

Keywords

• breast neoplasms
• cancer registry
• incidence
• iran