Prognostic indicators and risk factors for the in-hospital mortality rate of patients with cirrhosis

Abstract

Background : : Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is an adverse prognostic indicator of liver cirrhosis, often triggered by various precipitating factors, with gastrointestinal bleeding being the most common. Comparing the Child–Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores to predict the severity and outcome of complications in patients with cirrhosis could help establish an accurate prognosis.Methods : : We retrospectively reviewed the records of patients with cirrhosis aged 18 and older who were referred to the Gastroenterology Department at Imam Khomeini Hospital in Ahvaz from April to September 2023. A statistical analysis was conducted to compare MELD and Child-Pugh score (CPS) in 95 patients with cirrhosis.Results : : The in-hospital mortality rate was strongly correlated with certain complications of cirrhosis. Gastrointestinal bleeding and HE showed statistical significance (P < 0.05). Additionally, the co-occurrence of cirrhosis complications, particularly HE in conjunction with others, was associated with increased mortality rates. Abnormal levels of the international normalized ratio, prothrombin time, partial thromboplastin time, bilirubin, and liver enzymes (alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and alkaline phosphatase) were also associated with mortality (P < 0.05). Specific laboratory factors in ascites fluid, namely total cell count and red blood count, were linked to the 6-month survival rate (P < 0.05). Furthermore, CPS was identified as a more specific and sensitive independent predictor of 6-month in-hospital survival than the MELD score (logistic regression: odds ratio, 2.3; standard error, 0.0189; P < 0.05).Conclusion : : We recommend continuing to use the CPS for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis and for the individual evaluation of liver disease in daily clinical practice.

Keywords

• child–pugh score; hepatic encephalopathy; liver cirrhosis; meld score; upper gastrointestinal bleeding